A surging river of capital is flowing into physical infrastructure, including for energy, AI, defence and strategic industries like semiconductor manufacturing. In 2026, for example, energy investment is slated to reach USD 3.4 trillion while global AI-related capex is estimated to exceed USD 1 trillion, with USD 800 billion coming from the five largest US hyperscalers. 

While the capex super-cycle's direction of travel is consistent across markets, regional variations merit consideration. When measured by per-capita spending, the US is leading in investment in AI infrastructure, data centres and electricity networks. China's spending is greatest in absolute terms as it builds out electricity grids, manufacturing and industrial upgrading. Europe inhabits a middle ground, with investment shaped by energy security, electrification and industrial competitiveness.

Key features of this super-cycle depart from the digitalisation wave of 2000–2020, when investment was heavily directed towards asset-light software and services. Now, more spending is flowing into physical assets such as AI data centres, energy systems, semiconductor fabrication, advanced manufacturing, logistics infrastructure and increased defence production.

This remarkable shift is already visible in the capital expenditure patterns of US listed companies, with investment in digital infrastructure – data centres, cloud infrastructure, telecommunications and fibre networks – now accounting for more than 1.6% of GDP, from just 0.6% two decades ago.

This wave creates insurance opportunities, as substantial new assets take shape that require protection. But the emergence of these new, costly and complex assets also reshapes the universe of risks that insurers protect their clients against. For instance, large, capital-intensive projects rely on interconnected electricity and communication networks, which amplifies the size and scope of risk and concentrates potential losses.

For insurers, this means that capturing the capex super-cycle opportunity will require more than additional capacity. It will demand deeper technical expertise, stronger risk engineering and new approaches to managing concentration and interdependency – capabilities that can turn unprecedented investment in physical assets into sustainable insurance growth.