The capex super-cycle will generate substantial new demand for commercial insurance across the lifecycle of assets being built, from initial activities to break ground on a project to commissioning to the operational phase. Meeting this demand will require significant capacity, since large, complex engineering risks call for the combined financial strength of commercial insurance and reinsurance markets.

Among the capex super-cycle's major investment areas, Swiss Re Institute anticipates that AI data centre construction and operation could generate around USD 91 billion in cumulative premiums by 2030. Over this same period, investment in renewable energy could generate around USD 111 billion in premiums. 

This estimate is sizeable relative to global commercial property premiums, equivalent to about 12% of cumulative global premiums from commercial property between 2026 and 2030.

During planning and construction of these assets, demand for insurance will inevitably be concentrated in specialty lines like engineering, components and materials supply chains, financing and surety, and liability risks linked to the buildout of facilities. Once these assets are operational, the focus will shift towards property, business interruption (BI) and liability protection needs that historically generate the largest and most enduring insurance premiums.

This operational phase will also bring more interconnected exposures: physical damage to data centres, energy facilities, grids, water systems or transport infrastructure can disrupt a broad range of businesses, potentially generating business interruption claims that spill over well beyond the affected asset itself. Meanwhile, shared infrastructure and complex supply chains may expose multiple insureds to the same event.

Physical assets that come with the capex super-cycle promise a durable increase in commercial insurance premiums, but how quickly premium growth materialises will be heavily influenced by insurers' ability to provide the capacity, knowledge and products needed to match the scale, concentration and complexity of these risks.