Sigma 03/2026 Time to build

Building big: the capex super-cycle

The global economy has entered a capital expenditure super-cycle, with investment shifting towards large physical infrastructure for artificial intelligence, energy and advanced manufacturing. This build-out is rapidly expanding the stock of insurable assets and creating significant demand for commercial P&C insurance, from the construction phase through operations that go on for decades.

Swiss Re Institute’s latest sigma publication, Time to build, estimates that AI data centres and renewable energy alone could generate more than USD 200 billion in cumulative insurance premiums by 2030, equivalent to about 12% of global premiums in commercial property.

But this transition poses challenges, too: large, technologically complex projects situated within global energy and communication networks are more difficult to underwrite and protect. This means that insurers looking to capture this growth and deploy capital with confidence must be able to understand, price and manage increasingly large, complex and interconnected risks.