World Insurance SIGMA 2/2026

Insurance as a shock absorber

This year our world insurance sigma highlights how the global insurance industry acts as the economy’s financial shock absorber, absorbing losses and recycling capital into recovery and rebuilding.

The global economy has received a shock again this year as conflict in the Middle East disrupted the world's energy supply. Yet this is also the fourth supply shock to the world since 2019 and follows the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia- Ukraine war and the 2025 trade tariffs. Taken together, these recurring shocks accelerate a more fragmented economic regime and make geopolitically driven shocks a structural feature rather than an interruption.

At the same time, a powerful investment cycle in artificial intelligence, data centres, energy infrastructure and advanced manufacturing is offsetting much of the shock and supporting growth in the US and across much of Asia. Surging semiconductor shipments have more than absorbed the hit from higher oil prices across Asia's major exporters.

For insurers, we forecast total global insurance premium growth lower at 1.3% in real terms in 2026, from 3.9% in 2025. Three dynamics are playing out. First, slower growth and stickier inflation soften demand for cover and raise the cost of claims. Second, the series of shocks comes as non-life insurance enters a soft market, adding inflation pressure while pricing is cyclically weak and capacity high. Third, the data centres, power grids and factories now being built enlarge the stock of insurable assets and create fresh demand for protection.

The story of 2026 is of insurance as a force to help hold the world steady against the cross-currents of volatility.