For all the volatility in the macro backdrop, the deeper message of this year’s sigma is constructive. A more fragmented, more shock-prone world is, almost by definition, one that needs more protection and absorbing risk is precisely what insurance exists to do. When disaster strikes, the industry not only pays claims but channels capital from around the world to the point of loss, funding recovery and rebuilding.

That global pooling of risk has been strikingly effective: since 2000, insurance has covered around 60% of the losses from the world’s largest catastrophe events, directing fresh capital to where it is needed most. The risk is that fragmentation corrodes the very mechanism that makes this work. Sizeable protection gaps already persist, widest in the emerging economies most exposed to climate and disaster risk, and a more fragmented financial system makes them harder to close.

In our view, insurance is not merely buffeted by a more volatile world; it is one of the principal sources of resilience in a more turbulent world.

Real premium growth, total, non-life and life, 2023‒2027F