New frontiers in cancer detection and diagnostics amid rising cases

Cancer is a growing global challenge despite medical progress. Each year, around 20 million people are diagnosed globally, with approximately 10 million deaths. By 2050, annual cases are expected to rise to 35 million, driven by ageing populations, lifestyle factors, and environmental impacts. 

Simultaneously, survival is improving, with more people living longer after diagnosis and recovery from cancer. This shifts the burden from acute mortality to longer disease duration and higher lifetime healthcare use, reshaping exposure for insurers. 

Early detection, alongside primary prevention, is a critical lever to improve outcomes. Cancers identified at earlier stages are more likely to be treatable and are associated with higher survival. Screening programmes have already reduced mortality in several cancers. For example, cervical cancer incidence and mortality in Finland have fallen by around 80% over about 60 years, with a 50% decrease in incidence in the US and Australia. Furthermore, in the US, stool-based screening for colorectal cancer has been associated with a 33% lower risk of death.  

However, large gaps remain. Many high mortality cancers still lack effective screening. Around 70% of US cancer deaths are linked to those without established screening programmes, such as pancreatic, ovarian and oesophageal cancers. 

Detection is expanding, but uneven screening across countries leads to differences in when cancers are diagnosed. Some are identified earlier, while others are detected at more advanced stages – directly shaping survival outcomes and claims patterns across markets. 

Artificial intelligence is improving how cancer is detected and assessed. It is already being used to analyse imaging and biomarkers, support diagnosis and identify higher-risk individuals.  

Multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests aim to identify multiple cancers from a single blood sample, including those that currently lack screening pathways – an interesting development from the current invasive testing methods. While promising, their large-scale impact on mortality is not yet established, and positive results require confirmatory diagnostics. Adoption will depend on clinical validation, real-world utility, cost, and healthcare system capacity. 

For insurers, these technologies have the potential to increase earlier and more frequent ongoing testing, including across previously undiagnosed populations. At the same time, they may contribute to overdiagnosis, with the detection of low-risk or indolent cancers that may not have caused harm. 

Cancer is shifting from a lower frequency, high severity risk to one characterised by higher incidence, lower severity, and longer duration. For Life & Health insurers, this transformation is changing core assumptions across life, health and critical illness products: 

• Mortality improves but shifts to later ages  

• Diagnosis-based products face potentially higher claims frequencies

• Medical costs increase over time due to ongoing monitoring, longer treatment, and cancer recurrence

• Risk assessment becomes more complex as tumour biology and diagnostics evolve 

As earlier detection brings a broader mix of cases into early stages, models based solely on stage at diagnosis become less reliable. Understanding this shift is essential for sustainable pricing, underwriting and product design as cancer continues to evolve. 

Download the full report to explore how advances in screening and diagnostics across countries are reshaping cancer risk.