sigma 5/2018: Global economic and insurance outlook 2020

Global economic growth will remain above potential in the near term, although we expect slowdown in the major advanced markets. For the US, we forecast gross domestic product (GDP) growth to weaken from around 3% in 2018 to a below consensus 2.2% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. We expect overall emerging market growth to strengthen moderately by around 4.9% annually over 2019 and 2020, after a 4.7%-gain this year. Emerging Asia continues to outperform, and we forecast growth of more than 6% in both China and India over the next two years.