sigma insights 05/2026: Ultra-processed foods: evolving liability landscape
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Ultra-processed foods (UPFs) are a long-tail risk with liability excess inflation dynamics.1 The first government-led UPFs suit, filed in December 2025, has added a new track to litigation strategies being deployed against UPFs manufacturers. Plaintiff theories often evolve, especially when many possible claimants are involved. The focus has widened from individual injury claims to public cost recovery actions. This approach, based on unfair competition and public nuisance arguments, aims to avoid causation hurdles inherent in individual claims. That said, the existing track of individual injury claims remains alive. If a case survives early motions and reaches discovery, internal documents could drive outsized settlements, with large defence costs. A single win could also trigger multi-jurisdiction follow-on actions and copycat claims.
A key plaintiff narrative is that UPFs are addictive, designed to be "hyperpalatable" and thereby boost desire to eat and overconsume.2 In high-income countries like the US and UK, UPFs account for over 50% of total energy intake (see Figure 1). Younger groups in the US (ages 1 to 18) get 61.9% of their calories from UPFs.3
The lack of a standard definition of UPFs poses a challenge for plaintiffs.6 Also, causality is hard to establish due to the small number of randomized controlled trials (RCT). Plaintiffs predominantly rely on observational studies that have found associations between high consumption of UPFs and poor metabolic health outcomes.7, 8 Nevertheless, the existing body of evidence has started drawing meaningful attention from governments, regulators and policymakers. Evolving litigation theories may reduce the centrality of RCT-grade causation and keep cases alive long enough to create leverage. If plaintiffs can overcome admissibility challenges using observational evidence, the case may reach a jury.
Figure 1: UPFs consumption as a percentage of energy intake in national dietary surveys (%)*
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References
Reference
1 Liability excess inflation: remains a key challenge for insurers and their clients, Swiss Re, 2026.
2 A.N. Gearhardt, K.D. Brownell, A.M. Brandt, From Tobacco to Ultraprocessed Food: How Industry Engineering Fuels the Epidemic of Preventable Disease, The Milbank Quarterly, 2026.
3 Williams, Anne M., et al. "Ultra-processed Food Consumption in Youth and Adults: United States, August 2021–August 2023." National Center for Health Statistics (US), 2025.
4 E.A.F Nilson, F.M. Delpino, C. Batis, et al., Premature mortality attributable to ultraprocessed food consumption in 8 countries. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2025.
5 C.A. Monteiro., M.L.C. Louzada, E. Steele-Martinez, et al., Ultra-processed foods and human health: the main thesis and the evidence, The Lancet, 2025.
6 Ibid.
7 Swiss Re SONAR, The editorial deadline for this study was 12 May 2025.
8 Global Launch Event - The Lancet Series on Ultra-processed Foods and Human Health, Ultra-Processed Food Research Action Network, accessed 02 February 2026.
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Jonathan Anchen
