Unseasonal fires trigger above-trend catastrophe losses in first half 2025

We estimate that global insured catastrophe losses reached USD 80 billion in the first half of 2025, above trend. Unprecedented losses from unseasonal wildfires in California and large thunderstorms in the US led to the second costliest half-year ever (after the first half of 2011). 

Wildfire risk is evolving amid settlement trends and lengthening of fire seasons, with changing climates compounding the loss threat that fires present. This adds volatility to global natural catastrophe losses, making the latter more difficult to predict.

In the second half, the Atlantic hurricane season approaching its peak remains a key swing factor for catastrophe activity although other perils, including wildfire, may also add to the full-year insured loss total.  Global insured losses from natural catastrophes have been growing at a long-term trend rate of 5‒7% annually in real terms. If this trend holds, insured losses from natural disasters this year will likely approach USD 150 billion, in 2025 prices.