The resilience of global agriculture is under pressure. Swiss Re Institute’s global Crop Insurance Resilience Index (CIRI) reading for 2024 stands at 45%, translating into a crop protection gap (in absolute terms) of close to USD 76 billion, up from USD 73 billion in 2023. Around 55% of global insurable crop value remains unprotected, even with improvements insurance penetration over the years.

We focus on the crop resilience of the world’s four largest (in terms of production value) agriculture-producing countries: China, India, the US and Brazil. The development of sector resilience has followed diverging trajectories in the four markets.

In China, the crop protection gap has halved over the last decade, signalling much improved resilience. In India, there has been incremental improvement on account of government reforms and initiatives. Resilience is highest in the US and lowest in Brazil, where pressure on public budgets impacts the reach of insurance cover.

Drought is a major risk in all four markets. In China, the share of crop losses resulting from droughts and floods has trended roughly equal over time. Since 2014, adaptation actions including establishment of early-warning systems have yielded a 58% reduction in crop land affected by floods and droughts, a notable strengthening of overall sector resilience. In India, two-thirds of total crop land is exposed to drought and only 55% of all crop land is irrigated, meaning high vulnerability to failing monsoon seasons.