Globally, annual weather-related insured losses since 1970 have risen by about 6%, on average. Wildfire losses have been growing around 12%, followed by 7% and 6% increases in insured losses from severe convective storms and flooding, respectively. Viewed in aggregate, nearly all of this global insured loss growth can be traced to increased exposure and the expanding role of insurance.  

Still, the global view alone does not reveal the whole picture.  

By examining individual perils at the regional level, SRI's sigma analysis identifies geographies where these losses are growing most rapidly, and, importantly, highlights how exposure alone no longer explains the loss trajectory. Hazard intensification and evolving vulnerability are becoming increasingly material in certain regions and perils. 

By examining the trajectory of insured losses from individual perils at the regional level, SRI's sigma analysis identifies geographies where these losses are growing most rapidly, and, importantly, highlights the role of intensifying hazard and rising vulnerability in pushing insured losses upwards. 

In North America, for instance, where wildfire insured losses are growing by more than 14% per year, some 60% of that increase is not explained by exposure or increasing insurance coverage. Here, hazard and vulnerability play a larger role, with disproportionate population growth in high-risk areas, fuel conditions and fire-weather patterns featuring prominently among the factors contributing significantly to rising insurance claims.

SCS losses show similar regional nuances. In North America, where insured SCS losses are rising by 7% annually, this growth largely reflects expansion in hail-prone areas and higher reconstruction costs, though changes in hazard and vulnerability may also be playing a limited role, with ageing housing stocks becoming more susceptible to hail and wind.

In Europe, where SCS insured losses are growing by about 10% per year, less than half of this increase can be explained by exposure alone. Changes in hazard characteristics, including shifts in storm intensity and hail severity, may play a more prominent role. Changes in vulnerability are likely also contributing to the large remaining residual, including expanded rooftop solar capacity. 

SRI's analysis also reveals nuanced insights about flood loss drivers by region. In Asia, insured flood losses are growing some 12% per year, with rapid urbanisation and land-use change contributing to rising exposure. A clear residual remains, indicating mitigation and adaptation have not fully kept pace with other risk drivers. Meanwhile, in North America and parts of Europe, investments in flood protection appear to have helped constrain insured loss growth, even as risk factors evolve.

Clearly, the global view of natural catastrophe losses tells one story. Regional dynamics tell another, underscoring the importance for insurers of understanding dominant trends in their markets.