US Property & Casualty outlook: after midnight
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US Property & Casualty insurance sector profits are peaking and growth is still slowing. Insurers have expanded capacity in response to strong underwriting results, so price gains continue to ease as competition for market share intensifies. Based on statutory data through 1H25, and after a quiet third quarter for natural catastrophe events, we now forecast sector average return on equity at 12% this year and 10% in 2026. Premium growth is expected to decline to 3% in 2026 as this year's outperformance spurs competition.
Table 1: US P&C insurance sector outlook
Figure 1: Quarterly direct premiums written (year-on-year)