US Property & Casualty outlook: growth stalls as peak profitability fades
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The US P&C industry is entering a more competitive phase. Underwriting margins are gradually compressing as rates decline across several lines. Personal auto premiums fell year-on-year for the first time in decades outside a recession, while total P&C premium growth slowed to below 3% in 1Q26. Headline profitability nevertheless remains exceptionally strong: lower catastrophe losses than a year earlier and stronger reserve releases contributed to the lowest first-quarter combined ratio since 2006.
Figure 1: Quarterly direct premiums written, yoy