bestestimates

• Are you trying to predict the impact of COVID-19 on mortality rates?
• Are you predicting the number of traffic fatalities in view of a shift to autonomous driving?
• Do you wonder whether high inflation will be temporary or persistent?

Many forecasting questions require more than good data and strong statistical models, they also require expert judgment. But as much as we benefit from expert judgement, we must guard against two types of errors - unwanted variability ('noise') and systematic divergence ('bias'). 

Don't worry - we have the methodology to help you!

Swiss Re bestestimates boosts expert judgement in predictions, founded on academic research, refined and adapted through our internal applications at Swiss Re measurable improvements in the methodology with accuracy gains exceeding 5%. The 7-step approach will bring you towards improved situational awareness and error reduction.

To get you started, we offer a fundamental training of best practices for boosting expert judgment, including a practical application of the Swiss Re bestestimates methodology. Going a step further, deep-dive sessions provide you the opportunity to be trained on the application of the methodology on specific parameters that are most relevant to your particular business needs.

How do you know it works? We tested it intensively! At Swiss Re we have seen measurable improvement in the decision making of insurance professionals trained in methodology with an accuracy gain in parameters estimation larger than 5%. Reach out to explore how we can bring forecasting to the next level!

Don't rely on luck, rely on Swiss Re bestestimates.