US Economic Outlook - 7 July 2019
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Though there was some de-escalation in trade threats since last month, uncertainties related to tariffs and trade restrictions continue to affect worldwide growth prospects. US and China decided to resume trade talks, but details are still lacking and little progress has been announced on the key contentious issues of the dispute. The trade uncertainties are threatening the disruption of global supply chains and firms with overseas operations are reluctant to make investments. With strong 3.1% qoq annualized 1Q19 GDP growth in the final estimate, we maintain our full year growth forecast of 2.5% in 2019, and 1.6% for 2020. Uncertainties related to resolution of trade disputes and its negative impact on consumer spending as indicated by sharp fall in consumer confidence index remain a key downside concern.