sigma 6/2019: global economic and insurance outlook 2020/21

As we predicted, last year marked the peak of the economic cycle, and our current forecasts for US and euro area growth of 1.6% and 0.9% in 2020, respectively, are both below consensus. The most notable down revision is to our forecasts for the euro area: we see the region at risk of entering a period of low growth, low inflation and low interest rates, so-called "Japanification".