Regions of extreme heat risk by 2040*

*Note: as a function of a) population in 2040 (as a proxy for people and assets exposed; this would exclude agricultural assets and nature) and b) change in number of days per year above 35°C between 2005 and 2040 for “intermediate” climate change scenario SSP2-4.5.

Source: Gao J. GeoTIFF_SSP2_total_2010-2050.zip, Global 1-km Downscaled Population Grids, SSP-Consistent Projections and Base Year, v1.01 (2000–2100), Harvard Dataverse, vol 1, 2020; CMIP6 climate projections, 2021 and ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present, 2023, Copernicus Data Store, Climate Change Service; Swiss Re