We forecast 4.7% growth in global GDP in real terms in 2021, below the consensus of 5.2%, and have a balanced risk outlook. Aside from recent positive newsflow around a vaccine for COVID-19, accelerated digital transformation and policy efforts to rebuild economic resilience are the main upside factors in our outlook.

Rollover/touch bars for details
  2019 2020E 2021F 2022F
Act­ual SRI Con­sen­sus SRI Con­sen­sus SRI Con­sen­sus
US
UK
Euro area
Japan
China
World

E = estimates, F = forecasts. Data as of 2 November 2020; *China data from IMF; ** Data from Bloomberg.

Source: Consensus Economics, Bloomberg, Swiss Re Institute