China's 14th Five-Year Plan: the road to a high-income economy

China's 14th Five Year Plan will blueprint the transition toward a high-income economy, with a focus on four priority areas: digitalisation, further opening of the economy and financial markets, green development and support for less developed regions. We believe the plan will generate insurance sector growth in protection-type products, mutual, health and pensions insurance, infrastructure investments and more business opportunities for foreign insurers, among others.

Key takeaways

• Structural reforms will target service sector developments and improved efficiency and productivity. We forecast average annual GDP growth of 5.4% in 2021-2025.

• The plan will have four priority areas: digitalisation, further opening of the economy, green development and support for less-developed regions.

• Insurance will be a key element in achieving the goals of the Five-Year Plan; we forecast 8.3% premium growth annually over the period.

• Among others, we see new opportunities in protection-type products, health, pensions, agriculture and cyber insurance.

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