Batten down the hatches? US recession risk at 35% in 2020

We see 35% probability of recession in the US in 2020, mostly due to external factors. Recession would hit re/insurers' net income and capital. In non-life, however, the accompanying disinflationary forces could positively impact margins, in part offsetting the downside pressure from investment income. In life, the investment-led decline would continue to constrain sector profitability.