Economic and financial risk insights - early macro spring short-lived, but bad macro doesn't mean bad markets
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After better than expected 1Q19 macro figures, global growth is set to weaken again. Long bond yields are likely to remain lower than previously expected amid the recent intensification of trade tensions. We expect an “insurance” cut by the Fed in September, and then central banks to take a “wait-and-see” approach. Risks to the outlook are skewed to the downside, with further escalation of the trade war our #1 risk.