Economic and financial risk insights - Growth slowdown continues despite recent green shoots
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Both the US and Chinese economies grew slower in Q3 this year. Our view of sluggish global growth and subdued inflation remains fully intact. We revised down our forecast for China real GDP growth to 5.9% while leaving all other forecasts unchanged. We expect monetary policy easing to continue given weakening economic momentum.
October saw many green shoots for global macro data and sentiment. With the détente in the US-China trade-war being good news, de-escalation uncertainties remain high with the impact on global supply chain being the major headwind.
Key Takeaways
- World economic growth is losing momentum as reflected in lower Q3 GDP growth in the US and China.
- We revised down the risk probability of a full-blown trade war to 30% given encouraging progress on US-China trade talks.
- While the Fed indicated a pause of rate cut, we expect one more rate cut by the US Fed by early 2020 and slightly lower ECB rates too.
- Brexit extended for another three months to January 2020. Yet uncertainties will remain with negative impact on the UK economy.
- We revised down China's GDP growth to 5.9% in 2020 while keeping unchanged our belowconsensus forecasts for GDP growth in the US and Europe.
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