Economic and financial risk insights - Spring will not be early for the 2020 economic outlook

Our view of sluggish global growth and subdued inflation remains fully intact, and our GDP growth and interest rate projections unchanged from the prior month, though we have revised up the 2019 CPI projection in China, to 2.8%. We expect monetary policy to remain accommodative given weakening economic momentum.

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Key takeaways

  • Our baseline scenario of a continued growth deceleration in key markets but no US or global 2020 recession is unchanged.
  • Although the US-China trade détente holds for now, trade war remains a key risk into 2020.
  • With no-deal Brexit risks off the table, the GBP has appreciated significantly, lowering UK's import price pressures going into 2020.
  • Social and political discontent is on the rise more generally, with potentially significant medium-tolong term growth implications.
  • We expect monetary policy to remain accommodative given weakening economic momentum.

 

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Economic outlook Spring will not be early for the 2020 economic outlook

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