US economic outlook: more vaccines, more stimulus, more growth and more inflation

We increase our real GDP growth forecast to 6.5% for 2021 and 3.5% for 2022 given a larger-than-expected fiscal stimulus and accelerating vaccination roll-out.

Key takeaways

  • A larger-than-expected stimulus bill and improving vaccine roll-out strengthen our outlook.
  • We revise up our 2021 forecasts for GDP to 6.5% from 5%, for inflation to 2.5% from 2.3%, and for 10-year yields to 1.8% from 1.2%.
  • While downside risks remain in public health and sensitivity to inflation, upside risks have also risen.

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Economic Outlook US economic outlook: more vaccines, more stimulus, more growth and more inflation

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