The US outlook continues to improve, but faces rising supply-chain disruptions that are pushing inflation still higher. We leave our 2021 GDP growth forecast unchanged at 6.5%, but raise our inflation projection to 3.7%.
The key takeaways are as follows:
Inflation pressure continues to rise from supply-side disruptions; we raise our 2021 forecast to 3.7%.
We expect price increases to partially revert as economic conditions normalize in the second half of 2021.
Construction and autos remain weak points amidst broadly strong data.