US economic outlook: supply disruptions raise inflation outlook

The US outlook continues to improve, but faces rising supply-chain disruptions that are pushing inflation still higher. We leave our 2021 GDP growth forecast unchanged at 6.5%, but raise our inflation projection to 3.7%.

The key takeaways are as follows:

  • Inflation pressure continues to rise from supply-side disruptions; we raise our 2021 forecast to 3.7%.
  • We expect price increases to partially revert as economic conditions normalize in the second half of 2021.
  • Construction and autos remain weak points amidst broadly strong data.

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Economic Outlook US economic outlook: supply disruptions raise inflation outlook

A coming US boom: consumer spending to power reopening

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