US economic outlook - vaccinations and fiscal stimulus to drive a robust recovery

We revise up our 2021 growth forecasts as we expect the positive outlook for public health and fiscal policy to outweigh the impact of current COVID-19 cases.

Key takeaways

  • We raise our 2021 real GDP growth and inflation forecasts to 5.0% and 2.4%, respectively, from 4.5% and 2.2%, due to accelerating recovery and expansionary policies.
  • A steepening Treasury yield curve and falling sub-IG bond yields suggest rising inflation expectations and normalizing financial conditions.
  • Upside and downside risks to GDP growth are balanced.

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macroeconomicgrowth publichealth politics economicoutlook unitedstatesofamerica covid19 corona

Economic Outlook US economic outlook: vaccinations and fiscal stimulus to drive a robust recovery

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SEE ALSO FORMER ECONOMIC OUTLOOKS