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US economic outlook - vaccinations and fiscal stimulus to drive a robust recovery
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This article was written
By
Jerome Jean Haegeli, Group Chief Economist
&
Thomas Holzheu, Chief Economist Americas, Swiss Re Institute
&
Jake Meyer, Senior Economist, Swiss Re Institute
We revise up our 2021 growth forecasts as we expect the positive outlook for public health and fiscal policy to outweigh the impact of current COVID-19 cases.
Key takeaways
We raise our 2021 real GDP growth and inflation forecasts to 5.0% and 2.4%, respectively, from 4.5% and 2.2%, due to accelerating recovery and expansionary policies.
A steepening Treasury yield curve and falling sub-IG bond yields suggest rising inflation expectations and normalizing financial conditions.
Upside and downside risks to GDP growth are balanced.
Economic Outlook
US economic outlook: vaccinations and fiscal stimulus to drive a robust recovery
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