We expect the positive developments regarding COVID-19 vaccines to benefit growth in the second half of 2021. However, the economy will face headwinds in the first quarter from the fierce third wave of the pandemic and the current void of fiscal support. We expect an up to USD 1 trillion fiscal stimulus package, which will support growth in the first half of 2021.
Positive developments on the vaccine front will support growth in the second half of next year.
We maintain our 2021 growth forecast of 3.5%, and revise upwards 2020 to -3.6%.
An up to USD 1 trillion fiscal stimulus package is expected for 2021.
We expect for Fed policy to be complemented with closer collaboration from the Treasury next year.