US economic outlook: slowdown in construction creates growth headwinds

The outlook for US GDP growth outlook is softening and we lower our forecast. The economy has passed its post-crisis growth peak and second-quarter real GDP growth of 6.5% was below our expectation. Supply disruptions are weighing on the recovery, particularly in the construction sector.

The key takeaways are as follows:

  • We lower our GDP growth forecast to 6% for 2021 as supply-side disruptions challenge the recovery.
  • The construction sector outlook is markedly weaker as high input costs and low housing demand bite.
  • We lift our CPI forecasts, but the July CPI release supports our view rising inflation is temporary.

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Economic Outlook US economic outlook: slowdown in construction creates growth headwinds

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