With selected research partners, we explore the future of risk coverage, assess changes in the risk landscape and act as a catalyst for industry change.
Our baseline is for a global recession with global growth being well below 2% this year. We expect growth to decelerate quite abruptly across the board with a recession in Japan and the Eurozone. The coronavirus outbreak in the EU and US is still intensifying.
Key takeaways
We expect a global recession this year and no "V"-shaped recovery given the global coronavirus outbreak, tightening financial conditions and the weak economic resilience to start with
A number of G7 economies will see a recession, particularly Japan and the Eurozone
The risk of both a US recession and a China hard landing has increased to a very high 40%
We foresee further monetary easing across the board, though it will unlikely offset the economic disruption
US 10-year yields are likely to remain below 1% until end-2021 and are quite likely to drop subzero temporarily
Balance of risks remains tilted to the downside. Traditional policy tools make it much more difficult to manage the common global supply and demand shock
Economic insights
Global recession is testing economic resilience
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sigma research
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