Economic and financial risk insights: price pressures remain top macro risk

Price pressures remain the top macro risk, and we have revised up our US and UK inflation forecasts. Supply-side bottlenecks and the energy crisis are keeping prices elevated. Meanwhile, global growth momentum is softening and stagflation remains a risk.

Winter is approaching and could cast a season-long cold chill over the global economy. As the latest US CPI print shows, inflation is the no. 1 macro risk and central banks risk being behind the curve.
Jérôme Haegeli, Group Chief Economist, Swiss Re Institute

Key takeaways

  • Global economic momentum is moderating as the energy crisis and supply side issues linger.
  • We revise our inflation forecasts for the US and UK significantly. Price pressures remains the top risk.
  • Our US inflation forecasts are above consensus; we are below consensus for GDP.
  • The Fed has started tapering and several central banks have turned hawkish but overall, we expect the global monetary stance will remain accommodative.

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Economic Outlook Economic and financial risk insights: price pressures remain top macro risk

US economic outlook: inflation concerns drive uncertainty over Fed interest rate rises

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