Economic and financial risk insights: price pressures remain top macro risk
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This article was written
Jerome Jean Haegeli, Group Chief Economist, Swiss Re Institute
Patrick Saner, Head Macro Strategy, Swiss Re Institute
Xin Dai, Senior Economist Insurance Analyst, Swiss Re Institute
Price pressures remain the top macro risk, and we have revised up our US and UK inflation forecasts. Supply-side bottlenecks and the energy crisis are keeping prices elevated. Meanwhile, global growth momentum is softening and stagflation remains a risk.
Global economic momentum is moderating as the energy crisis and supply side issues linger.
We revise our inflation forecasts for the US and UK significantly. Price pressures remains the top risk.
Our US inflation forecasts are above consensus; we are below consensus for GDP.
The Fed has started tapering and several central banks have turned hawkish but overall, we expect the global monetary stance will remain accommodative.