Economic and financial risk insights: economic immunity needed as COVID cases surge

The latest surge in COVID-19 infections represents a setback for the growth outlook, while inflationary pressure is persisting.

Pandemic risks and supply bottlenecks are refusing to fade, and we believe downside risks have risen. We expect inflation to be structurally higher as firms reconsider faraway parts of supply chains, and excess demand prevails.
Jérôme Haegeli, Group Chief Economist, Swiss Re Institute

Key takeaways

  • A new surge in COVID-19 cases is threatening economic momentum with mobility restrictions, especially in Europe and China.
  • Supply chain-related inflationary pressures refuse to dissipate, reviving risks of stagflation in 2022.
  • The Federal Reserve is shifting to a hawkish tone, but we see one less rate hike in 2022 than the three the market is currently pricing in.
  • Watch our monthly outlook video, which this time is a special edition with insights from our team across the globe.

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Economic Outlook Economic and financial risk insights: economic immunity needed as COVID cases surge

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