Brazil Quarterly Update – September 2020

Economic activity contracted sharply in 2Q20,due to shutdowns measures which also sparked a slump in insurance demand. We expect a deep recession in 2020 and protracted recovery in 2021, with premium growth to remain weakened by the economic slowdown.

Key takeaways

  • GDP growth contracted by 11.4% yoy in 2Q20, the largest on record since 1996, as the pandemic crisis has disrupted both demand and supply

  • We forecast the economy to shrink by 7% this year despite enormous monetary and fiscal stimulus, and partially recover by 3.5% next year

  • Total insurance premiums shrank by 7.1% in the second quarter, due to declines in life and casualty business; meanwhile ceded premium increased by 32.5%

  • We expect the COVID-19 crisis to continue to depress insurance demand in the near term


Economic Outlook Brazil Quarterly Update - 09 September 2020