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Professional forecasters - certain about interest rates, not the economy

Forecasts for 2021 economic growth show a large dispersion, while 10-year yield forecasts are much more concentrated.

The key takeaways of this edition are:

  • Not an all clear: while 2021 will be a year of economic rebound, the dispersion of professional forecasts remains elevated.
  • The current dispersion boils down to whether COVID-19 is understood to have left long-term scars on private-sector balance sheets.
  • We believe the structural damage is done and remain below consensus with our forecasts.
  • Beyond this year's rebound, we do not expect the recovery to show higher long-term growth.
  • Professional forecasters agree that 10-year yields will remain low.

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finance interestrates macroeconomicgrowth economicpolicy insurance economicinsights corona covid19

Economic Insights Professional forecasters - certain about interest rates, not the economy

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