Professional forecasters - certain about interest rates, not the economy
Article information and share options
Forecasts for 2021 economic growth show a large dispersion, while 10-year yield forecasts are much more concentrated.
The key takeaways of this edition are:
- Not an all clear: while 2021 will be a year of economic rebound, the dispersion of professional forecasts remains elevated.
- The current dispersion boils down to whether COVID-19 is understood to have left long-term scars on private-sector balance sheets.
- We believe the structural damage is done and remain below consensus with our forecasts.
- Beyond this year's rebound, we do not expect the recovery to show higher long-term growth.
- Professional forecasters agree that 10-year yields will remain low.
Economic Insights, direct to your inbox
Our Economic Insights series looks at current economic topics and their implications for the re/insurance industry.
Subscribe to receive each edition of Economic Insights.