COVID-19: hitting the sweet spot on the pandemic macro clock

R0 is below 1 in the G7 countries, making the economic outlook more encouraging.

Key takeaways

  • In the "new normal", the global economy will not return to full capacity, resulting in a protracted recovery.
  • In the G20, we estimate that sweet spot economic capacity utilisation will be at 90-95%.
  • A change in consumer behaviour and remaining operational constraints will hurt hospitality, wholesale and retail trade, air travel, and entertainment most post lockdown.
  • The SRI Pandemic Macro Clock shows that R0 has declined  below 1 in G7 economies.
  • This is encouraging for the economic outlook, and the G7 can now work with careful easing towards reaching the "sweet spot".

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Economic Insights COVID-19: hitting the sweet spot on the pandemic macro clock

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