COVID-19: hitting the sweet spot on the pandemic macro clock
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R0 is below 1 in the G7 countries, making the economic outlook more encouraging.
Key takeaways
- In the "new normal", the global economy will not return to full capacity, resulting in a protracted recovery.
- In the G20, we estimate that sweet spot economic capacity utilisation will be at 90-95%.
- A change in consumer behaviour and remaining operational constraints will hurt hospitality, wholesale and retail trade, air travel, and entertainment most post lockdown.
- The SRI Pandemic Macro Clock shows that R0 has declined below 1 in G7 economies.
- This is encouraging for the economic outlook, and the G7 can now work with careful easing towards reaching the "sweet spot".
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