COVID-19 crisis to widen the economic resilience gap
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We expect the COVID-19 crisis to widen the economic resilience gap. The countries highly exposed to the hardest hit sectors are among those receiving least fiscal stimulus. Some European economies were among the least resilient already before the crisis, and look very vulnerable to the pandemic shock, risking further divisions across the EU. China – ranking in the middle to lower economic resilience levels before the onset of the pandemic shock – looks best positioned to emerge stronger from the crisis.
- The COVID-19 crisis is likely to widen the economic resilience gap.
- The most vulnerable economies from a sectoral perspective, including Spain, Mexico and Turkey, receive least fiscal stimulus.
- Increasing polarisation risks exacerbating the divisions across the European Union.
- Countries entering the crisis with weak economic resilience to start with look more vulnerable to the COVID-19 shock.
- China is the exception. Starting from a low/middle position, it looks well positioned to come out stronger from this crisis
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