2021 hurricane pre-season forecasts: another turbulent year

Pre-season forecasts for the North Atlantic hurricane season predict above-average activity again in 2021. Disaster resilience will be key to minimise the potential impact. 

The key takeaways from this edition of Economic Insights are:

  • Predictions for the North Atlantic hurricane season are for an above average 2021, but short of 2020 observations.
  • Long-term climate cycles such as the current positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation phase imply a more active hurricane season: underwriting decisions should take this into account.
  • It is too early to predict the level of insured losses, but higher activity increases the chance of a severe hit.
  • With US inflation and construction prices having risen sharply, economic factors will adversely affect claims costs from any loss-making landfalls this season.
  • As in all seasons, it only takes one hurricane landfall to make it an active season for coastal residents and disaster preparation is vital.

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Economic Insights 2021 hurricane pre-season forecasts: another turbulent year

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