Economic and financial risk insights
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Global growth is slowing with the balance of risks tilted to the downside. We expect the Fed to continue hiking rates on the back of recent strong US data and the partial reversal of the tightening in financial conditions. The ECB will find it challenging to normalise policy amid high recession risk. The EM tightening cycle may have peaked, while China's CB maintains a clear easing bias. A global trade war remains the top risk.