US Economic Outlook

Although the longest-ever government shut-down is now in the rear-view mirror, delays in hard data releases from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Census Bureau continue to obscure the visibility on the state of the economy. Meanwhile, data from unaffected agencies and private sources largely support our projection for slowing but not cratering growth (with GDP growth slowing from 2.9% in 2018 to 2.2% in 2019, and further to below-trend 1.7% in 2020). This slowdown to around trend is not limited to the US – other regions, in particular Europe and China, are also seeing a deceleration in activity. Globally, risks are geared to the downside, with trade tensions still the biggest risk.

Economic Outlook US Economic Outlook