US Economic Outlook
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The US economy is strong but signs of softening are becoming more evident. Consumer confidence and Purchasing Managers Indices remain elevated, and manufacturing is on track for the strongest year of growth since 2012. On the other hand, the middle of the yield curve has inverted, raising speculation around its power of predicting recessions. On the trade front, despite the agreement between US and China to a "pause" in the tariff spat at the G20 meeting, the medium-term outlook remains negative, since no substantive progress has been made. The USMCA trade deal between the US, Canada and Mexico was signed last week, but the timing of ratification by lawmakers in all three countries is unclear. The risk of auto tariffs has also risen lately.