The Great Warming in detail

Note: The content of the series as described below may not always reflect Swiss Re's view in detail.
 

Glaciers are melting much faster than they used to in the mountains above Pontresina, Switzerland.


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Episode one: “The Human Fingerprint”

“The Human Fingerprint” explores the underlying science and evidence of climate change. From the Badlands of Alberta to Peru and around the world, we examine clues to earth’s ever-changing climate to learn what today’s comparably fast-changing temperatures may mean for our own futures.

Seeking answers as to how climate has affected human lives, we explore a very different western climate where dinosaurs once thrived in tropical jungles. Just a tiny difference in average temperature can have profound effects: like the tiny drop in average temperature that triggered the Great Famine of the early 1300s, killing tens of thousands across northern Europe.

In a forest on Vancouver Island, cycles of life and decay illustrate the carbon cycle, a cycle that is increasingly skittering out of control, as human activities release billions more tonnes of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into earth’s atmosphere every year. This is the heritage of the industrial revolution, which has transformed our world. The industrial revolution is still happening in places like China, where millions of people are buying their first cars.

Travelling to Hawaii, we explore the link between powerful El Nino events and an increasingly energized atmosphere. In Toronto, we see how scientists project future climates with powerful computer simulations built on mind-boggling math. The scenarios they predict for 2050 – illustrated with morphing computer graphics – inevitably show a hotter, more extreme world.

The signs are already evident – in the “moving Madonna” of the Louisiana Gulf coast, the records of British amateur climate observers, the melting ice of Nunavut, the dying dogwoods of southern Ontario. But there are three potential major impacts of climate change that we cannot afford to ignore.

A hotter climate means more extremes – therefore more storms, more droughts, more floods, more of the kind of weather that can kill people. As temperatures climb, new diseases can emerge, as deadly microorganisms jump to new host species or spread into warming temperate zones.

Finally, the last – but most ominous – potential impact: thousands of times in the earth’s history, rising temperatures have culminated in sudden climate “crashes” – drops of up to fifteen degrees in just 10–20 years. Eminent scientist Dr Wallace Broecker believes the cause lies in the North Atlantic, where the warm waters of the Gulf Stream slow and drop.

In the end, no one knows exactly what the Great Warming will bring in the decades to come -- but it has already delivered a powerful warning. Earth’s temperature is rising at the fastest rate in recorded history, and our climate is changing.

 

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Episode two: “Age of uncertainty”

“Age of uncertainty” looks at the legacy of climate change, the consequences of a “business-as-usual” scenario. Do we really need more proof?

We begin in ancient Peru, where the Moche civilization was destroyed by a massive El Nino event... even human sacrifice did not appease their gods. Today we’re just as vulnerable to El Ninos, which may be becoming more powerful as higher temperatures destabilise our atmosphere.

The story of Isle Derniere – a once-fashionable resort off the tip of Louisiana – foretells the fate of barrier islands all along the East Coast – like Fire Island, where Erika Freid’s house had to be rebuilt 80 feet back from an ever-eroding beach. In places like tiny Badger, Newfoundland and even in inland cities like Northampton in the UK, surprise floods are wiping out property and people’s lives. But the greatest effects are felt in the far north – where melting permafrost and thinner sea ice are threatening the lives of people and animals.

In Georgian Bay, cottager Eric Harding is mowing his beach for the third year in a row. The effects of climate change on the Great Lakes means lower water levels, as evaporation increases in both summer and winter months. The impact of rapid change worries biologist Karl Schiefer, who predicts massive species extinctions in our future, as rapid warming and fragmentation of habitat places birds and animals at risk. Already, off the coasts of the world, fish are disappearing at an alarming rate – victims of over-fishing and warmer temperatures. Dr Tim Parsons warns of the “de-evolution” of the seas, as warmer waters create an excellent habitat for jellyfish, which are increasingly taking over.

Across the American West, trees are dying – victims of drought and wildfires; and farmers everywhere must confront ever more uncertain growing seasons. Drought and extreme weather are keeping farmers on their toes in the Canadian West, too, while in Bangladesh, higher sea levels and more violent monsoons are forcing farmers like Binod Biswas to make drastic changes.

In the marshes of the Louisiana coast, marsh guides Danny and Toby Duet have seen erosion measured in the hundreds of feet in their own lifetimes; and the city of New Orleans – already well below sea level and sandwiched between the Mississippi and the sea – is certain to be a victim.

As temperatures climb, severe effects are already being felt in places like France, where 15,000 people died in the heat of summer, 2003, and across many other urban areas. Dr Jean Zigby is seeing far more cases of respiratory distress and heat stroke in his CLSC clinic in Montreal. And in a Harvard lab, there are startling results: higher CO2 levels means a 10% increase in the growth rate of species like ragweed – but a 61% increase in their pollen production.

Yet perhaps the greatest threat is to global stability. As earth’s population increases, each new arrival expects his or her ration of energy, food and water. How we achieve this will depend on how we manage our resources. Will “dirty” energy be the only way?

Climate change is deceptive – it doesn’t show itself in any one form. Little by little, our world is changing. But the good news is that we can reduce its impact. Around the world, millions upon millions of people do care – especially the young. And they are going to change the world.

 

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Episode three: “Our children’s planet”

This episode sweeps around the world to introduce us to the people and communities who are combating the Great Warming: like the tiny Swiss village of Pontresina, which is building a giant wall to hold back the mudflows and avalanches caused by melting permafrost; or the world’s jewel – Venice – which has finally decided to build a huge underwater gate system to protect the city from floods.

The British have already built their gates. It’s called the Thames Barrier, and only four people have the power to close it. One of them is Sarah Lavery, whom we meet at breakfast as she gets the call warning of an oncoming tidal flood. It’s estimated that over $160 billion could ride on her decision.

In southern Saskatchewan, Dan Sidloski has stopped ploughing. Instead, he plants directly into slits cut into his fields. It’s called “no-till agriculture”, and saves water and cuts carbon emissions. In the high Altiplano of Peru, Roberto Quiroz is teaching the farmers of the Quecha tribe the techniques of their ancestors – with fascinating dry-land technologies called “cochas” and “waru-warus”.

On the other side of the world – Inner Mongolia – Wu Nin Bater is a nomadic goat herder. He and his family live in a yurt, keeping warm and cooking by burning dirty diesel fuel. Today, a revolution is arriving on the back of a truck. With his new solar panels and windmill, he’ll cut his carbon emissions in half.

There aren’t a lot of nomadic goat herders in Toronto, but there are changes here, too – like the green roof on top of Mountain Outfitters, or the underwater pipe system that’s cooling downtown with cold water from Lake Ontario. In Montreal, 28-year old developer Chris Holmes has sold every unit in his EcoCité – a radical inner-city concept for sustainable housing.

But big changes will be driven by new technologies. Bio-ethanol, hydrogen fuel cells, wind, tidal power... are only some of the solutions beside energy-saving measures. How can one create truly green hydrogen? In New Mexico, Reed Jensen and his daughter Anne Traynor may have the solution. It’s a radical concept involving the power of the sun, and it may just be the energy source for the world’s first hydrogen village.

There’s too much carbon in earth’s atmosphere. Why not just suck it right back out? In New York, Dr Klaus Lackner may have found a way, and although the devices look like angel’s harps on stands, the chemistry can’t miss.

In the end, the battle will be fought and won as attitudes change. In rural Bangladesh, a travelling drama troupe sings the message of environmental care through traditional drama. And in western Canada, Dan Sidloski is planting a forest. 

 

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